With the results of the federal election now in, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have been re-elected to a third term with another minority government. Although the Liberals fell short of getting the majority for which they had hoped when they called the election in mid August, none of the parties appear to have gained any advantage or momentum with the result. AS such, the next Parliament may prove to be very stable as no party will want to risk causing another unwanted election anytime in the near future. In fact, it would not be surprising to see it run for nearly a full term (3-4 years).
The Conservatives, led by first-time leader and former P&G legal counsel Erin O’Toole, dropped 2 seats overall while being unable to achieve an electoral breakthrough in Canada’s three largest cities where the Conservatives in fact lost seats. The Bloc had a net gain of only 1 for a total of 33 seats despite expectations of electing 40, while the New Democrats also were ahead by only 1 seat for a total of 25 seats despite spending nearly double on this election (some $25 M) over 2019. The Greens elected only 2 MP’s with their popular vote dropping by some 800 K votes across the country and their new leader polling a distant fourth in the riding of Toronto Centre. Former Conservative cabinet minister and leadership contender Maxime Bernier and his People’s Party of Canada, appealing to the anti-vaccination mandate community, did rise to nearly 5% in the popular vote but did not elect any MP’s.
Additionally, with no party having shown any significant gains and the Liberals failing to get a majority for the second time, the leadership of each party is likely to come under either a formal review or at least some self-reflection. This will also make another election less likely any time soon.
